Initially, the Obama campaign made me rethink my initial view. His call for “bringing people together” seemed to have struck a chord in the American electorate. But 80 days from the election, I’m starting to settle back into my initial view that strong party identification will win out over facts on the ground. I was struck watching the Saddleback Forum yesterday at Pastor Rick Warren’s church that voters are beginning to sort into their tribes. For all the talk of new, young evangelicals giving Obama a chance in November, it was apparent from the difference in responses given to the two candidates that Obama stood no chance of connecting with this group of potential voters. Indeed, among White evangelicals, Obama is faring no better than John Kerry did in 2004. That is stunning given that Bush is widely regarded as the “evangelical candidate” and Kerry was viewed as a largely secular figure.
Now the table seem reversed, Obama is an avowed Christian, albeit at one of those “liberal” churches and McCain is a traditional Western Republican who is reticent to talk openly about his faith. But it hasn’t moved the needle one inch. I think this is because we have two core constituencies on either side of the political divide that have starkly different world views. I’ll be interested to see if his “change” theme works in the face of this continued polarization.