Ever wondered what would happen if poor people voted at the same rate as the non-poor?  Dylan Matthews did a quick and dirty merging of CNN exit polls and Census data and found that Obama’s vote margin would have been significantly larger than McCain’s in the 2008 election.

I found that, with even turnout across income levels, Obama would have received 55.2 percent of the vote and McCain 42.7 percent. The actual results (PDF) were 52.9 percent for Obama and 45.7 percent for McCain. Obama would gain 2.3 points, and McCain would lose 3, with other candidates picking up the rest.

Matthews doesn’t think this is a particularly big shift, but it’s seismic if you compare it to past presidential elections. It highlights both the challenges and opportunities Democrats face in upcoming elections. Voters that make over $50,000 are over represented in the electorate and more disposed to vote Republican than those making less than $50,000. Historically this is a more politically active group. Evidence of this is the recent survey data that shows that tea party members are more affluent than the rest of the public.

We can look at this two ways. Republicans have done a better job in the last few years convincing those making over $50,000 that they are the party best able to serve their interests. Of course, income is not the sole determinant of vote preference, but it’s a biggie. However, this also means there is a big opportunity for Democrats to capture the “slack” in the portion of the electorate that makes under $50,000. This is where innovative strategies for increasing turnout among working class voters could benefits Democrats greatly.

The problem, however is that this is a hard population to turn out. A weakened associational life in the US means that there are no labor unions or civic organizations to drive turnout. Advocacy groups fight the good fight, but they lack the resources and the people power to engage in the mass scale mobilization necessary to close the income voting gap. I had high hopes for the Obama netroots strategy serving as a new mobilization paradigm, but the enthusiasm of grassroots web activists seems to have waned. If the Democrats have any chance in 2010, they need to somehow get working class voters engaged in the face of difficult economic circumstances. Good luck!