In order to take the edge off of my poll watching withdrawal, I’ve gone back to one of my favorite poll-meth (I would be dating myself to call it crack?) dealers… Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight blog has a nice breakdown of Obama’s performance among a range of demographic groups compared to Kerry in 2004.
Obama outperformed Kerry in every demographic except seniors, gays and lesbians and “other” religions. What’s most astounding is the breadth of his gains. He made gains among liberals, moderates and conservatives. Which begs a question we discussed in our thick culture podcast today (coming soon!) — do campaigns even matter? Did the lousy economy and unpopularity of President Bush preordain a Republican victory this year? If you’re making gains in groups all along the ideological spectrum, does it really matter what you’re saying?
Comments 2
Kenneth M. Kambara — November 17, 2008
I think campaigns really matter, but then again I'm from a marketing and org./economic sociology background. Could a Republican pulled a "Jedi mind trick" regarding the issues that were making the Republican brand unfavorable? I think so. At least to the point where the electorals were closer. It would have required laying the groundwork over the summer and running a tight, disciplined, and effective campaign. There were a lot of distractions in the campaign and McCain never got any real traction with his various messages. In the end, odds would have been long, as we're talking about winning over voters in competitive states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Colorado, at the very least.
I think there was a bit of the Matthew effect going on, where as the race started slipping away from McCain, more and more voters jumped ship. Visibly pulling out of Michigan and Palin criticizing that move the day after made the campaign look weak and disorganized. Things looked pretty dire for GHWB in August of 1988, but he found the right levers to pull and Dukakis fell asleep at the wheel (of the tank). I think there's a lot of causal ambiguity in terms of outcomes. I think a lot of the prediction equations have a lot of spurious correlation in them, so I think examining data should be done cautiously and with a bit of healthy skepticism.
業界最高峰のブランドコピー 激安、コピーブランド、スーパーコピーブランド(N級品)通販専門店!ブランドコピー,コピーブランド,スーパーコピーブランド,ブランドコピー 激安,偽物ブラン — November 15, 2015
ブランドN級品ブランドコピー 代引き,スーパーコピー時計,ブランドN級品,楽天コピーブランド,,偽物ブラン日本最大級の最高のスーパーコピーブランド財布激安代引き販売店,スーパーコピー時計の激安老舗.！国内No.1時計コピー工房,アフターサービスも自ら製造したスーパーコピー時計なので、技術力でお客様に安心のサポー トをご提供させて頂きます。スーパーコピー 代引きN品をご 購入の方は、こちらへ.弊社は正規品と同等品質のコピー品を低価で お客様に提供します!すべての商品は品質2年無料保証です。
業界最高峰のブランドコピー 激安、コピーブランド、スーパーコピーブランド(N級品)通販専門店!ブランドコピー,コピーブランド,スーパーコピーブランド,ブランドコピー 激安,偽物ブランド、偽物のバッグ、腕時計、財布など激安で買える！全部のスーパーコピー販売品物のなかで私達のブランド激安が一番有名です http://www.gowatchs.com/brand-258.html