I apologize in advance if this is post is of interest only to survey research nerds. But I find the following chart from FiveThirtyEight fascinating:
It seems to suggest cell phone-only users (presumably young people) are enough to swing most polls about 2 points toward Barack Obama. No telling how this translates into voter turnout and actually results.
One more thought: while many may think of cell phone-only users as just young people, it is increasingly common way for working class and poor people have phones. So, it may include many black and lower income voters, too.
Comments 2
Sociological Images » THE TROUBLE WITH CELL PHONES — November 4, 2008
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jose — November 6, 2008
Andrew,
Thanks for posting this. I used it in my methods class to talk about sampling bias. It looks like the results would up in between the no cell phone included sample and the cell phone included samples.