The year during which the U.S. will become a “majority minority” is well discussed. It looks like it’s going to happen sometime around 2050 or earlier. This statistic, however, elides an interesting subplot: the year various age groups will be majority minority.
Over at The Society Pages Editors’ Desk, sociologist Doug Hartmann offered the following table. It shows that children under the age of 18 will be majority minority 32 years earlier, by 2018. Young people ages 18-29 will join them by 2027. By 2035, people aged 35-64 will be majority minority. People 65 and older are quick to follow.
This data reminds us that demographic change is gradual. The year 2018 is just five years away. If young people continue to vote in numbers similar to those in the last two elections, their changing demographics could push forward a change that looks all but inevitable in the long run.
In the meantime, we need to be vigilant about how younger people are portrayed. Today poverty is racialized so as to demonize social programs designed to help the less fortunate. Can we imagine a future in which public education and other youth-oriented programming is similarly framed: as white people helping supposedly undeserving people of color? This is likely something that we should be vigilant against in the coming years.
Lisa Wade, PhD is an Associate Professor at Tulane University. She is the author of American Hookup, a book about college sexual culture; a textbook about gender; and a forthcoming introductory text: Terrible Magnificent Sociology. You can follow her on Twitter and Instagram.
Comments 27
Andrew S — January 10, 2013
Question, and perhaps I'm thinking about it wrong: When it says "Age 18-29", is that referring to people who are 18-29 TODAY? Or 18-29 in 2027? I'm guessing today?
Which means the "65+" category is probably off, since I'm not sure how many will still be alive when they are 110 years old.
Umlud — January 10, 2013
Drawing on blatantly racist comments (not to mention physical attacks, most tragically seen in the racism-motivated massacre of Sikhs) against Asians and Asian Americans made during 2012 and just last week by O'Reilly, I think that this is something that is moving beyond a tipping point of what is "okay" for (often) established, (often) White, and (often) male commentators. Indeed, SocImages has covered a few of these, including the comments of NBA player Lin finding a "Chink" in the armor and the video of a UC college student's racist commentary of Asians. These sorts of race-based attacks (verbal as well as physical) still seem to somehow be "not racist", at least from what I've witnessed here in Michigan. And these sorts of attacks aren't just limited to Asians and Asian Americans, but also to Hispanics, Arabic, and Persian populations, too. In other words, from what I've seen, for many (often) Whites, an otherwise racist comment cannot be considered racist if it's said against non-Blacks.
I'm bringing this up because I think that one major piece of change that will have to be brought up in the conversation of race (especially outside of the coasts, where there are various influxes of races and cultures from across the globe) is that conversations about race are no longer about a "Black and White" duality. Indeed, in many places, for people born since the tail end of Gen-X, the "Black and White" duality version of race that appears to govern what is and isn't "racist" (at least here in Michigan) has never been a personal reality. And - for better or for worse - this country's demographic trends mean that (barring some major change) our future discussions of race cannot remain based in that binary.
Furthermore, as society comes to grips with the recognition that (if we continue to care about race as a social construct in this country) the current categories of race and ethnicity are hardly useful. Why, for example, is the only concession on ethnicity to determine if one is Hispanic, Latino, or not? What is the difference between Asian Americans from India and China, if they are only to be grouped as "Asian"? Furthermore, are Japanese, Korean, Chinese, etc. merely ethnicities of "Asian", or are they distinct races? If they are distinct races, then are there such things as ethnicities within these groups? (Arguably, if one says that "Chinese" is a race, then there are definitely a vast variety of ethnicities within that category that are recognized within China and within many Chinese diasporic communities. Oh, and btw, none of these ethnicities have anything to do with Hispanic/Latino ethnic identity....)
Finally, what about people of mixed heritage? How are racial categories going to take people of mixed heritage into account? Will a person who is of Black/Asian heritage going to be classified as the same "mixed" race as a person who is Asian/White? What about a person who is 1/4 Native American, 1/4 Asian, 1/4 Black, and 1/4 Pacific Islander? Or someone who is even more "mixed"?
The transition toward a majority minority country will (hopefully) mean a major shift in moving racial distinction (both socially recognized as well as administratively recorded) away from the historic overwhelming binary of Black and White (or - more basically - White/not-White). As a person who was born at the very tail end of Gen-X and grew up outside of the historic racial binary, I have always chafed at the binary and of people who seem - for various reasons - to wish to continue to use it, regardless of the demography that has already been pushing significant portions of the United States away from that framework and into a future that will be far more socially rich, socio-economically complex, and (if we continue to use race as a dominant social construct) linguistically challenging than the racial history that we learn in school. (Hopefully, too, our future can also witness the break up the massive block of "White" into the variety of ethnic identities that many people throughout the country celebrate, be it Irish, Polish, German, Norwegian, Greek, or French heritage and ethnic pride.)
j_s — January 10, 2013
Interesting, but not only do we not know how birth/death/emmigration/immigration trends will shift in coming years, but we don't know what the definition of "white" will shift to be. I mean, if you counted Italians, Jews, Slavs, Irish, etc. as nonwhite (which used to be the case), America became majority-minority a long long time ago.
myblackfriendsays — January 10, 2013
muah haha hah ha ha ha ha ha ha...
lol--j/k.
Yrro Simyarin — January 10, 2013
I feel like you really have to consider geographical effects when you talk about this. Florida, New York, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas... are going to be (or are) 'majority minority.' Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado... not as much.
In terms of federal policy and national level TV-culture, it's going to be a big change. In terms of local culture and state level politics, it's going to increase the differences between the center of the country and the coasts even beyond what they already are. America may be majority-minority, but most white people will still live in areas where they are a majority.
jenisedai — January 10, 2013
Wait- the title says "American", implying that the article will compare globally. Then the article compares races instead. Are you trying to say that only white kids are American?
Susan — January 10, 2013
It seems like there words missing here. Maybe when American-born? White? I read the beginning of this post several times and remain confused...
AMERICAN CHILDREN WILL BE “MAJORITY MINORITY” BY 2018 | Welcome to the Doctor's Office — January 10, 2013
[...] from CBR [...]
Chris Nunez — January 11, 2013
I'm finding the use of the term 'white' problematic in this summary. Are you talking about race or color? There is a significant difference, and this conflation of two concepts is what has kept the discourse in public policy and mainstream media confused and confusing.
Peyton Farquhar — January 11, 2013
There are very few social programs in place to help poor whites mostly because if you're white skinned, then it has been assumed since time immemorial that you *must* be a millionaire. See also Andrew Jackson, the bank slayer and last president who was poor and white.
glaborous_immolate — January 15, 2013
"Can we imagine a future in which public education and other youth-oriented programming is similarly framed: as white people helping supposedly undeserving people of color?"
The key is to make people feel GOOD about whites helping underprivileged people of color.
FeministDisney — January 17, 2013
yeeep that title is awkward enough to prevent me from reblogging this
Jehaban — January 20, 2013
American Children Will be “Majority Minority” by 2018
It was interesting to see how researchers came up with the data and evidence to prove that the actual minority now, will become the majority over Americans, although we live in America. I wonder about the validity of this prediction though. Even though statistics show the minority population is increasing, anything could happen in the future in regards to immigration rules and the difficulty of a minority to make a good living in America. Im not sure if I agree with the post but I can say the amout of minorities in our country is increasing. For example, when I pick up my sister from elementary school I see more kids of different nationalities then I did when I was in school, which could be an indication of change to come.