The following is a second guest post by Concordia College sociology major Ryan Larson ’14. An earlier post describes his models predicting the outcomes of the Olympic hockey tournament. After graduation, Ryan intends to pursue graduate study in sociology and criminology.

With the bracket set, I have decided to apply my models to the bracket to see how well my predictions fare. The previous analysis was completed before the bracket was released. With the bracket seedings now set, there cannot be a 1-2 Canada-USA finish. Therefore, I applied my model predicting whether a team would win any medal to the bracket competitions all the up to the final two games (Gold medal and Bronze medal game). For the two medal games, I used the gold medal model, for reasons discussed in the previous post. Below is the bracket with predictions of each game. Each probability is normalized to each game, so the relayed probability is the team’s chances of winning the game relative to who the team is playing.

Bracket