You know you’re a political science geek when you DVR the State of the Union speech…and then you’re pissed off because the recording cut off the Republican rebuttal!
Good SOTU as far as these things go. The pins are set up for a president to knock them down. As I was watching, I kept coming back to a Gallup poll one of my students sent me that showed Obama had the largest gap in public support between the parties. While 88% of Democrats support him, only 23% of Republicans do the same.
Can any appeal to compromise, however eloquent and soaring, overcome such a polarized political climate? This video of the D.C. tea party protests over the summer reminds me of how daunting Obama’s task remains.
The president is appealing to a “fair-minded” middle that complains they are fed up with politics. I wonder how much of this is genuine frustration and how much of this is a convenient trope for not getting involved in politics. It’s an easy conversations starter to refer to Washington as a “a den of thieves” or “a bunch of crooks.” At the end of the day, I wonder how much appeals to political temperance is going to benefit him.
Comments 4
Kenneth M. Kambara — January 28, 2010
The Gallup numbers for Obama are pretty close to December Pew Research Centernumbers, which are interesting. The gap between Republicans and Democrats is 64 points, but the gap between Dems. and independents and moderate/liberal Republicans, conservative Republicans is 41, 48, and 71 points, respectively.
Breaking down the numbers for section, "Beyond Job Approval: Any Disappointments or Positives?", this pattern emerges from the 49-40 approval-disapproval percentages::
14.7% approve but are disappointed with some things
32.3% approve and have no disappointments
1.96% approve and don't know about disappointing things
9.6% disapprove but are happy with some things
29.2% disapprove and aren't happy with anything
1.2% disapprove but don't know about things that they're happy about
11.0% don't know about approval/disapproval
The SOTU reminded me of an old boss who had a strategy of framing a nice set of low expectations. Obama isn't appealing to conservative Republicans who I don't see ever coming around. The question is how to position himself and his policies, not just to improve his numbers but to effectively address issues that people prioritize. The policies in the SOTU, particularly when it came to jobs and the economy, issues that are top-of-mind to his constituents, are centrist. I'm not convinced his proposed policies will put a dent in the 7M jobs lost and unemployment rate of 10% that's expected to persist throughout much of 2010.
jose — January 28, 2010
Hey Ken...good analysis. I guess my point is that I don't know if appealing to the middle is smart politics anymore. I'm not even sure there is a "middle"
Paul Jones — April 20, 2019
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