On this morning’s The Today Show, the nation’s second place intellectually-barren morning fear-mongerer, Matt Lauer pointed out that the debate over same-sex marriage is far from settled with 36% of Americans opposing it. Conservative activists have made similar arguments, noting that whatever the polls might say, ballot measures reveal a higher degree of opposition to marriage equality. As Gary Bauer told Fox News Sunday:
“I’m not worried about it, because the polls are skewed. Just this past November, four states, very liberal states, voted on this issue and my side lost all four of those votes. But my side had 45, 46 percent of the vote in all four of those liberal states.”
In a WashPost blog post titled
“Is support for gay marriage oversold?“, Aaron Blake and Scott Clement summarize the work of political scientist Patrick Egan who finds that due to social desirability issues in polling and greater election turn-out by conservative activists, polling results do, in fact, underestimate opposition to same-sex marriage.
But I’m not worried. Whatever the Supreme Court may decide, in the long-term, public opinion is solidly on the side of justice. As Sarah Kliff demonstrates on Workblog, demographic trends strongly favor advocates for same-sex marriage. Beyond demographics, there may be some institutional reasons to believe expect greater acceptance of same-sex marriage in the future.
Why?
1) Attitudes evolve. We all know about President Obama’s “evolution” on the issue of same-sex marriage, but, to a great extent, the rest of the country has followed suit. As seen below, every single age group has grown more supportive of same-sex marriage in the past ten years and particularly in the last four. Since 2000, according to Pew Research, support in my Grandma’s generation has grown from 21% to 31%. That’s huge! As several charts on Kliff’s post reveal, one of the best predictors of supporting same-sex marriage is knowing that a friend or family member is gay. With greater numbers of Americans coming out, we would expect more attitudes to “evolve.”
2) Old people oppose same-sex marriage. But old people die. Among people born since 1981, support for same-sex marriage is currently 70%. Even a majority of Republicans under 30 support same-sex marriage.
3) Radical Professors and the Liberal Media. Sometimes Fox News gets it right. My Facebook feed, composed almost entirely of college students, college graduates, and Professors, is red as hell today with the Human Rights Campaign Marriage Equality sign. While surveys of professors are few and far between, one survey of Constitutional Law Professors found 87% support same-sex marriage. While sociology certainly skews Left, I suspect the academy as a whole is more support of marriage equality than the country. Likewise, though many media depictions of gays and lesbians are deeply stereotypical, there’s no question that industry elites who produce TV, movies, and print publications tend to favor same-sex marriage. As former New York Times Public Editor Daniel Okrent once wrote, “The [New York] Times present the social and cultural aspects of same-sex marriage in a tone that approaches cheerleading … That’s all fine, especially for those of us who believe that homosexual couples should have precisely the same civil rights as heterosexuals.” With popular shows like “Modern Family” and “Glee” offering favorable depictions of healthy same-sex relationships alongside positive examples of same-sex couples in Amazon Kindle and JC Penny commercials, the mass media increasingly paints a picture of life in same-sex relationships that is unthreatening. While there are any number of examples of homophobia in the academy and the mass media both are agents of socialization that largely favor same-sex marriage. To bastardize Marx, as go elites, so goes the nation.
4) Same-sex marriage exists (and things are okay) in big, growing states. Sixteen percent of Americans live in states with marriage equality and if Prop 8 is overturning, it will jump to 28%. And, taken together, the states with marriage equality are growing faster than those without it. More of the population will be living alongside married same-sex couples and it will become plain that the reality of same-sex marriages is as unexciting and mundane as opposite-sex marriages.
These are among the reasons that marriage equality is not a question of “if,” but “when?” What other reasons should we add to this list?
Comments 6
Perla Velez — April 3, 2013
I think that all these different generations have come to accept it more because of the vast amount of people who are Gay. Some of these people have kids, grandkids, nephews, nieces, friends, colleagues that are Gay. Who gives another person the right to dictate who they should marry? Traditions are barely followed, religion is being questioned, everyone knows that politicians all have a shade past that comes to the light once they are elected,science is fast evolving and those who come after us are brought up in an entirely different mind set.
We are all humans, trying to progress, and live happy and satisfied. Can't we all just get along?
Aaron K — April 3, 2013
Another reason might be the bullying issue have been happening in our society today, whether it is on the internet, or face to face, this issue have definitely have awaken Americans. Even if they don't know anyone close that are homosexual, they still realize what the close minded and hatred people are doing to our next generation. The society needs to change to give them hope that their future will be bright. I think that have definitely touch many population in the nation as well. People have been saying how ignorant, close minded and stupid when people look back in 20 years or even 10 years when all this is over and it all become normal, how it should be. Just like back in the day with the racial segregation. Why can't we just embrace one another with love instead of generating hatred??
Roni Lopez — April 4, 2013
I think that all generations are accetping of the gay community and same sex marriage because they have realized that they do not have the right to dictate to a another human being whom they can love. the older generation has been able to "let go" of the negative pre-conceived notions that are connected to tha gay community. the older generations also have their children, grandchilren (whom are more open minded). to educate them on the gay community and teach them how to be more accepting. As the world evolves people are learing that they too need to evolve. society is seeing that a perosn's sexual preference does not make them diffent from anyone else.
Angelica — April 4, 2013
Marriage is between a man and women and should stay that way. I do not believe in gay marriage. Old people do die and the next generation of "old people" have grown into a world that thinks same sex marriage is acceptable. With that it is something that our grandchildren will see as an acceptable way of life because of the lifestyle we have prepared for them to come into. So Many people that I know who are homosexual claim to hate that they are. That being said I think it is something we should shy away from to restore the sanctity of marriage. I don't judge your actions but to ask me to amend laws for your action that I do not agree with in the first place is something I will not due.
Angelica — April 4, 2013
So many attitude changes will occur because our generation is so pro choice. We can do whatever we want when and how we want. That being said everyone older generations have just heard the same arguments over and over they choose now to just go with the flow. Attitude change will also occur because our future generations will be raised in a society that it is widely acceptable.
kriseida — April 16, 2013
why shouldnt gay marriage be legal? who is to say or judge anyone! the people who are against gay marriage are crazy bible fanatics, so they want to judge gay marriage but what if i judged them about they're ridiculous beliefs? its outrageous that two people in love cannot get married and have legal rights to their partners!