Robert Gibbs says the House is up for grabs in 2010.   My political analysis — duh!!!  A dismally weak economy coupled with the typical coattail effect for Obama in the 2008 election that brought in a whole set of members that had no business winning their races (Democrats representing both of the Dakotas?) is a recipe for big losses.  Jonathan Chait has a nice summation of the effect of midterms on the party in power.  He links to this chart from Seth Masket that highlights the relationship (albeit weak) between economic strength and midterm losses for the president’s party.

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It makes sense.  Republicans are all ginned up = Obama’s a Nazi or a Socialist.  Democrats are dispirited = No we cant?!?  Turnout will drive the election and based on my empirical analysis of catching Fox News on the TV screen at my gym, Republican leaning voters will be primed.  In my 30 minute treadmill run, I learned that “Moslims” are taking over the World Trade Center site, “Felons” stole the Minnesota Senate election for Al Franken and Iranian nuclear engineers are milling around Washington, DC.  It all makes me want to run to the next Tea Party meeting!

So what’s the right midterm strategy for the Democrats?  I wonder why the Democrats haven’t decided to push back in terms of turnout.  Why not recognize you’re going to get shellacked in 2010 and lay the groundwork for future elections.  One key way to do this would be to push hard for immigration reform.  Put it on the agenda.  Force the Republicans to take positions that will be hard to explain to their Latino constituents.  Instead of taking the centrist high ground, why not “go Rove” and work to build a progressive base.  It seems that the Democrats in power are too busy pursuing centrists who are largely disengaged and are not planning to turn out for this election.  You be better served by growing a progressive base that might help buffer against big midterm losses in future elections, even if it costs you a few seats this time around.

My 2 cents 🙂