I made a trip south of the border yesterday. I drove all day to South Bend, IN to drop off a proposal and had dinner in Grand Rapids, MI, so I missed Obama’s Afghanistan speech. I didn’t miss hearing the fallout from both the left and the right. So, I’m wondering about what’s going to happen in next year’s midterm elections and I’m curious on what my fellow bloggers and the readers have on the subject.
Let’s turn back the clock. Sixteen years ago, in late November of 1993 and Bill Clinton’s approval rating dipped under 50%. Recently, Barack Obama’s ratings also dipped below 50%. This got me thinking about some other trivia tidbits::
- A complex health care reform plan was under attack by William Kristol. The “Harry and Louise” ads, funded by lobbyists aired to cast doubt on Clinton’s reform, using the catchy phrase, “they choose, we lose.”
- Clinton, a moderate Democrat, was being pushed around by conservative Democrats in Congress. They felt he didn’t have a mandate with 43% of the popular vote [1] and won only because Ross Perot split the Republican vote.
- The Democrats enjoyed an 82 seat advantage in the House in 1993. The current margin is 79 seats. The Democrats had a 56/44 advantage in 1993. The current advantage is 59/41.
- The stock market was on an upswing in 1993 {DJIA}. This year, the market has spent the year recovering and is about where it was in 2004 [2].
On the other hand::
- Unemployment was 6.5% in December 1993, not 10.2% {Nov. 2009} [3]
- The Gulf War {Desert Storm} was a fading memory in 1993, while in 2009 Obama is gearing up for a Afghanistan surge at a $30B/year pricetag.
Historically, in 1994 there was a Republican landslide and the GOP took over both the House and Senate {although Clinton won re-election handily in 1996}. Will history repeat itself? I’m not sure. In 1994, there was a clear and concerted effort by the Republicans. Newt Gingrich and the “Contract with America” captured the imagination of many voters. I’m not sure the GOP can pull that off in 2010.
While the Obama Administration has faced criticism from the right, he’s also under fire from the left on the issues of the economy and the war in Afghanistan. While the Democratic Party machine would resist this, will the current circumstances provide opportunities for left-leaning Congressional candidates a rare window of opportunity? What about the Republicans? Will they regroup? What about Libertarians? Is this an opportunity for them?
Twitterversion:: Politically in the US, it feels strangely familiar to 1993.But,it’s not. What will happen in 2010 midterms? #ThickCulture http://url.ie/3d5n @Prof_K
Comments 1
Tom Degan — December 3, 2009
Take this to the bank:
We will lose the war in Afghanistan. Just as in Iraq, every serviceman or woman who has died there has died for no reason. Russia and merrie old England learned this lesson a long time ago. You would think....Never mind.
Suffice to say, on my best day I do not receive one tenth of the information that President Obama receives. I don't read any of the Presidential Daily Briefings that are placed on his desk every morning. Obviously he is in possession of a wealth of intelligence that you and I are just not privy to. Maybe we should be giving him the benefit of the doubt - and I have been doing just that, I promise you. But from my vantage point it appears to me that this president has failed to learn the lessons that have been passed onto us down the decades by the administrations of Franklin Delano Rossevelt and Lyndon Baines Johnson - lessons involving bold action in times of economic crisis (more on that another day) and the utter folly of waging wars that cannot be won.
Let this be etched in stone:
Any country that would view its women as inferior beings not entitled to basic human rights is not worth one drop of ANYBODY'S blood.
I want to believe in this president. He is the chief executive I worked harder to elect than any other in my lifetime. I realize that it is simply far too early in this administration to write a final assessment of his term of office. That being said, my confidence in the Obama White House is ebbing rapidly. Where in the hell is all of this change I could believe in? Is the Bush Mob still in charge? What gives?
NOTE TO THE RIGHT WING:
No, I am still exceedingly grateful that John McCain and Gidget von Braun did not win the election last year. Have another sip.
http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com
Tom Degan
Goshen NY