Barack Obama won just over 50% of the popular vote last week, but he earned 80% of non-white votes. According to USA Today exit poll data, he secured 93% of the Black vote, 73% of the Asian vote, 71% of the Hispanic vote, and 58% of the non-white Other vote.
This data suggests are real and palpable difference between how (some) Whites and (most) non-Whites see the world, a difference that will become increasingly influential.
Earlier this month the Pew Research Center released an updated prediction for the racial/ethnic composition of the U.S. in 2050. They expect that, by 2050, Whites will be a minority, adding up to only 47% of the population. By that time, they expect Hispanics to account for 29% of the population, and Blacks and Asians to account for 13% and 9% respectively.
Paul Taylor and D’Vera Cohn, at Pew, observe that the demographics of the voting population will change a bit slower since the majority of the demographic change is from births and deaths, not immigration. In 2011, for example, whites were 66% of those ages 18 and older, but only 56% of 18-year-olds. In other words, it takes 18 years to grow a voter.
Whatever the pace of change, the era of winning U.S. elections by pandering to the worldview of a single group is ending. Future politicians will likely have to put effort into attracting a wide range of voters, as Obama did on Tuesday.
Lisa Wade, PhD is an Associate Professor at Tulane University. She is the author of American Hookup, a book about college sexual culture; a textbook about gender; and a forthcoming introductory text: Terrible Magnificent Sociology. You can follow her on Twitter and Instagram.
Comments 200
Umlud — November 14, 2012
It would be a good thing to look at how these will affect federal House elections, state elections, and local elections, since looking at the national numbers rarely directly relate to the scale at which most elections take effect: the local and state levels.
For example, if you look at the US/Mexico border of Texas, you'll see that an increasing amount of border counties are becoming "bluer" over time, whereas counties that are removed from the border have remained almost entirely "red". Similarly, larger cities are generally "bluer" than the suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas surrounding them.
This has differential impacts in local, state, and federal elections, since the local and state elections are (or at least tend strongly to be) affected by the demographic shifts, while federal elections (especially for House elections) can be greatly skewed due to redistricting (which I believe SocImages discussed earlier, showing how more votes were cast for Democratic House of Representatives candidates, even though Republicans continued to maintain control in that body).
Peter — November 14, 2012
What would also be interesting to see is the increase in people checking 2 or more categories. Since 2000, the number of mixed-race Americans has increased 32%, In percentage terms, it has gone from roughly 2.4% of the population to around 3%. It would be interesting to see what impact this changing demographic has on society, voting, social issues, etc.
Legione13 — November 14, 2012
I wonder how white people will be treated when they're no longer the majority.
Taylor — November 14, 2012
I found this article very interesting because it is exactly what I have been talking about in both my sociology and chicano studies class. With our population heading towards a minority majority, politicians are going to have to reevaluate how they run a campaign, or just not get elected. They will not be able to ignore the minority vote, because it will no longer be a minority. President Obama did a very good job of campaigning and appealing to the general minority voice, as is shown by how many of their votes he obtained. I am sure there are some people who don't believe this will be true, but there is no doubt in my mind that soon being a different ethnicity will be nothing more than normal.
Lunad — November 14, 2012
I tend to view these claims of whites being in the minority in 40 years as a bit dubious. The majority of Hispanics are white, and as a larger percentage of them are second or third generation Americans, I could easily see them being subsumed under the larger category of "white" - just as Irish, Italians, Greeks, etc. were before them. Of course they will probably maintain an ethnic identity, but it will be a white ethnicity, rather than a non-white one.
Mr. S — November 14, 2012
Can't "the worldview of a certain group" change over time? Being born a black woman doesn't predestine a person to a fixed set of political beliefs, does it?
To be honest, I would argue that sort of group-pandering helped win the presidency for Obama. He successfully portrayed Romney as forging a "war on women," successfully winning women voters by something like 55%-44%, but losing men voters by 52%-47%. It seems that sort of tactic is still effective.
If there's a lesson to be drawn, it's that Republicans need to abandon their socially regressive stances on things like abortion and same-sex marriage. Abortion will never be illegal again, and same-sex marriage is inevitable as Americans become increasingly accepting. Republicans would have been wise to nominate a Ron Paul or Gary Johnson type, who would not have lost points on these red herring issues; but would have scored points rejecting the Bush/Obama flavor of Keynesian economic policies that are the source of our many economic woes today.
MPS — November 15, 2012
I think that by 2050, "Hispanic" will be considered "white" and therefore whites will still be the majority.
oofstar — November 15, 2012
how are they determining race? is it just self-describing? i always come away from 'there will be less white people' statements wondering if a lot of that is about whiteness being about what people are -not-. like a person who is white and asian, do they get counted towards the white population or only as asian? there is something racist about that designation as well.
Richard — January 28, 2013
People assume that because of Latino immigration the white race is declining. I don't agree with this. I'm a Latino immigrant married to a white anglo saxon woman. We have 4 children of which 3 are fairskinned and look anglo. The fourth is dark haired but can still pass for white.
The Whites we've been accustomed to have been of European decent. The future whites will look the same only of a different heritage.
Tido1992 — February 12, 2013
Being white and living in a minority majority state (Texas: 44.8% White, 38.1% Hispanic, 12.2% Black, and 4% Asian) I can say that I really enjoy being exposed to a different culture and language on a daily basis. Everybody In Texas seems fine with the growing minority population except for die hard conservatives in towns that no one has ever heard of.
Sociological Images course guide: Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders : Asian-Nation : Asian American News, Issues, & Current Events Blog — April 16, 2013
[...] U.S. Racial/Ethnic Demographics: 1960, Today, and 2050 [...]
nick — April 30, 2013
third generation american latino and proud!
JC Rules — October 21, 2013
Blacks and Mexican Indians are Freeloaders, voting for whoever gives them the most Free Handouts...
What Does Race Have To Do With It: Broadening Our Explanations For The “Woman Problem” | COMM 5509 Blogapalooza — November 5, 2013
[…] could be applicable to the United States, since minorities like African Americans and Hispanics are continuously becoming more populous throughout the country, but they seem to be excluded, like women, from technology […]
Mitigating the Rise of the Asshole American | Artisan Politics — November 10, 2013
[…] become more tolerant over the years as our population has diversified across racial and ethnic lines. If we start to focus on the many things we have in common rather than our lingering differences, […]
Shawn — February 10, 2014
Who cares about this whole racial debate. We just do not need people running this world with the old super conservative Caucasian ideology.
Good thing Generation Y is so diverse, seasoned, and extremely smart. Hoping for a lot of changes in this world because of us.
The Ink is Black, the Page is White: The ommission of People of Color in Children’s Books | Alex Paramo — April 14, 2014
[…] alarming. Books provide a way for children to envision themselves within the world around them. The demographics of the U.S. is rapidly changing to include more people of color. The importance of modeling in education is […]
In Memoriam: James Shigeta, 81, an Asian American pioneer in Hollywood | Reappropriate — July 29, 2014
[…] broke into Hollywood at a time when Asian Americans still represented less than 1% of America. This was a time in Hollywood when racial minorities were still virtually unseen in front of (or […]
Sven — September 30, 2014
Even if we don't have a gun-based race war or develop anti-non-white bioweapons or nanoweapons by 2050, whites will still be the largest single voting block by far, and I'm sure that the way things are going 99.999% of whites in 2050 would vote for whoever is the most pro-white and anti-non-white candidates. So one way or the other whites will not only survive but have their revenge on the inferior races. As far as Hispanics being considered white, if you mean Mexicans of European heritage, then of course they are already white by definition. But if you mean Mexicans of Indian or Mestizo origin, they are by definition non-white. It's not a matter of definition or choice, it's a matter of DNA.
John Cusack — January 10, 2015
i am white as well i classify myself as european. i was born in ireland. ireland classifies us as white or european only. ireland doesnt accept cultural or ethnic groups or origins except European. whites are 94 % in my own country. in usa 75 % of the european origin. i don't accept or use the term Hispanic. hispanics are white people of race like Caucasian or European ancestry. whites of the european origin or descent in 1950 to 2060 levels vs blacks of the sub saharan african descent. 1050 whites 27.98 % blacks 8.97 % 2010 whites 16.43% blacks 15.57%.
John Cusack — January 10, 2015
in 1950 there was as 3 times as more Europeans than sub Saharan Africans. i don't accept the term Hispanic by origin. either white or European ethnic origin or ancestry or caucasian. if they are white.
Larigola99 — January 16, 2015
there is a great deal of inter-marriage going on so why we just try getting along. we will all benefit if we only try to mind our business. we are all in the same struggle -trying to make a living and raise our families. my wife & I are of Hispanic heritage from the Caribbean but that's our business and we have plenty of friends of different heritages and we appreciate it. it's no threat to us.
red_earn — February 11, 2015
@Chicano I understand what you are
saying. Mexicans (proper term for someone from Mexico) have a historic genealogy
of Aztec Indian and Spanish. Hispanic is considered historically to be white
because many years ago the only "races" were black, white,
red(Indian) and yellow(Asian) - Hispanic/Latino is considered an ethnicity not
a race. I don't think anyone is trying to just group people together but you
have to understand the historic terms if you are going to argue about it. It
has nothing to do with language; It has to do with physiological
characteristics.
The Omission of People of Color in Children's Books — March 19, 2015
[…] alarming. Books provide a way for children to envision themselves within the world around them. The demographics of the U.S. is rapidly changing to include more people of color. The importance of modeling in education is […]
Meno — March 25, 2015
Why do all you whites want us to become you? so you can still think your the majority? screw you we are our own race
Analyzing what happened in Baltimore | HermannView — May 10, 2015
[…] Post); articles about how the racial demographics of the country will be different in 2050 (see here and here); a video comparing the life of a white person to the life of a black person (The […]
Analyzing the Baltimore uprising: a call for revolution | HermannView — May 10, 2015
[…] Post); articles about how the racial demographics of the country will be different in 2050 (see here and here); a video comparing the life of a white person to the life of a black person (The […]
Bread for the City » How Social Security Gets Racist Without Really Trying: Part 3 — July 5, 2015
[…] I will discuss more reasons in future blogs. The authors attribute much of the redistribution to demographic change—groups growing at a faster rate will have relatively more members in the workforce and relatively […]
protectionistt — October 26, 2015
In 2017, non-Whites will be leaving the US in droves from a Donald Trump led mass deportation program. The information in this 3 year old article is out-of date. In the near future, America will be Whiter than it was in the 1950s.
Thinking For Yourself is Violence: The Stonewall Movie Controversy Continues - Reasonably Gay — November 3, 2015
[…] is more racially diverse than the actual racial makeup of the population in 2015. The Pew Research reported that in 1960 the racial makeup of Americans was closer to 15% of the population being minority. This […]
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[…] to the 1960 U.S. Census, 85% of Americans were white. Our nation is on track for becoming the true melting pot we were […]
The VICE Guide to the 2016 Election: The Alt-Right's Fear of a Black Planet - CrackBlack.com — July 12, 2016
[…] now, there could be a real catastrophic breakdown. However, if the United States had maintained the ninety percent white population it had in the 1960s, we would not be facing any of this. We would be living in a […]
The Alt-Right’s fear of a black planet – Political Sociology — September 22, 2016
[…] now, there could be a real catastrophic breakdown. However, if the United States had maintained the ninety percent white population it had in the 1960s, we would not be facing any of this. We would be living in a […]
E Pluribus Unum: An Immigrant’s Plea to America – The Right Rage — October 12, 2016
[…] first time in US history that immigration from the Western hemisphere was limited. According to the Pew Research Center, in 1960, America was 85% white, 11% black, 3.5% hispanic and 0.6% Asian. By 2011, those numbers […]
Lukáš Rojko — October 14, 2016
So many haters here. I think people should forget about history. All ethnic groups should live separately and keep maintain their culture.
Trump, the Minority Vote, and the Future of the Republican Party — October 26, 2016
[…] idea of the GOP trying to expand upon its primarily white supporters is entirely based in statistics. Minorities now make up nearly 37% of the US population, and demographers estimate that number will […]
Shannon McBride — May 30, 2017
MPS, I don't agree. The media ( Hollywood, corp.advertising & the liberal left ) are promoting White woman to give birth to anything " OTHER " than White children! If White people ( specifically White women ) don't wake/wise up, In 2050 "White" will actually be "OTHER", Welcome to 21st century GENOCIDE!!! Ps. The spirit of Joseph Goebbels is alive and well in the 21st century American media/society!!!
The John Birch Society Is Back – News | Vica.Life Membership Platform — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The John Birch Society Is Back - POLITICO Magazine — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The John Birch Society Is Back | Beatriz Simpkins — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The John Birch Society Is Back | Tom Williams — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The John Birch Society Is Back – Tiffany Favorites — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The John Birch Society Is Back | BuzzJour — July 16, 2017
[…] according to polls by Gallup. The percentage of citizens who identified as non-Hispanic white decreased from 89 percent to 63 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Such changes, mixed with […]
The Myth of Expensive Children | Valkyrie and the Bear — July 23, 2017
[…] https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2012/11/14/u-s-racialethnic-demographics-1960-today-and-2050/c… […]
American Cauldron – Immigration and Its Discontents – Myth of the 20th Century — August 17, 2017
[…] – U.S. Racial/Ethinc Demographics: 1960, 2012, 2050 – https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2012/11/14/u-s-racialethnic-demographics-1960-today-and-2050/c… – How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed Over Time – […]
Episode 31: American Cauldron – Immigration and Its Discontents – Hyperboreum — August 24, 2017
[…] – U.S. Racial/Ethinc Demographics: 1960, 2012, 2050 – https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2012/11/14/u-s-racialethnic-demographics-1960-today-and-2050/c… – How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed Over Time – […]
Myth Of The 20th Century - Episode 31: American Cauldron, Immigration and Its Discontents - Social Matter — August 25, 2017
[…] – U.S. Racial/Ethinc Demographics: 1960, 2012, 2050 – https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2012/11/14/u-s-racialethnic-demographics-1960-today-and-2050/c… – How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed Over Time […]
Adolph — April 13, 2018
White Americans must take back our Nation. A simple solution would've been to support Adolph Hitler, and the Third Reich in World War II. Never, in the history of mankind has a population been so duped as to fight against their own interests. Hitler was pro-White; pro-male; anti-faggot; etc. If we ever have the chance again (i.e., Putin and White Russia), we need to take it. Everything created, scientific, culture, art, literature; music, etc., has been by White People. The niggers, spics, and other mud people "dumb" us down as a people. White People are at the top of the "food chain" of the races. In the 1960s and before, the United States population was nearly 88% White, and we were number 1 in just about every category. Education included. Slowly we have devolved into a third world "mud" nation, with slightly over 65% White, and we have dropped to the middle of the rankings. At the present rate, when Whites are projected to become a "minority" in 2050 our third world transition will be complete and we will be a shithole banana republic ranking at the bottom of every list we want to be at the top of.
George — May 7, 2018
The massive demographic changes post-1960 have been completely due to government policy, utterly without the ' Consent of the Governed '. Beginning with the 1965 Immigration Act, courtesy of the late Teddy Kennedy. A completely wide-open southern border, driven by the interests of the political elite. Birthright citizenship for the children of illegals, a result of judicial whim and Congressional Indifference.
Wayne Alston — January 3, 2019
The blacks are in a systemic protocol of extinction...look carefully, and it's VERY evident!!!
It's, basically, a white-male pride ego issue...they run the US gov...and have befriended the backround-powers of societal control.
Whites would rather NOT have to compete with the blacks...it's, far too often, an embarrassing show...so the blacks are doomed to less opportunities in the areas that matter MOST (education, etc.)...society is thereby engineered according to those whites in the high positions.
And so it is!!!
Wayne — January 3, 2019
Ever wonder why the Black Panther type groups have been extinguished, but the KKK type groups have been allowed to continue with their mission?
Those at the top want it to be thusly...
ergo, it is!!!
Michel J. Gaudet — January 18, 2019
I am SO sick & tired of hearing AFRICAN AMERICAN, MEXICAN AMERICAN, HISPANIC AMERICAN, even NATIVE AMERICAN! We are ALL Americans, damn-nit!
Also, if someone stupid (as in too damn lazy to work for a living) wants to go around speaking of how THE WHITE MAN'S ACTIONS of several hundred years ago somehow is RESPONSIBLE for STUPID'S inability to better himself, let's all chip in and send him back to where his GREAT, GREAT, GREAT grand-daddy - or mama - came from.
Barrett — March 28, 2019
Hey Wayne, using words like "ergo" & "thusly" still cant remove the ignorance of that post.
Black Conservatives in America Edward Ring | RUTHFULLY YOURS — January 14, 2020
[…] and their allies in the media have made clear that “demographics is destiny,” and that destiny favors Democrats. It’s easy enough to see why they believe this: nonwhites constituted 15 percent of the […]
25 Years Later—Was Brimelow Or Krikorian Right To Duck The Race Issue? - Wild Sage News & Views — April 18, 2020
[…] has been reduced, falling from 89 percent of the population in 1960 to just 75 percent in 1990. If current immigration trends continue, non-Hispanic whites are expected to become a numerical minority within the next fifty years. This […]
25 Years Later—Was Brimelow Or Krikorian Right About Facing The Race Issue? - Wild Sage News & Views — April 19, 2020
[…] has been reduced, falling from 89 percent of the population in 1960 to just 75 percent in 1990. If current immigration trends continue, non-Hispanic whites are expected to become a numerical minority within the next fifty years. This […]
Black Conservatives in America - American Greatness — June 19, 2020
[…] and their allies in the media have made clear that “demographics is destiny,” and that destiny favors Democrats. It’s easy enough to see why they believe this: nonwhites constituted 15 percent of the […]
Sultanul Trump e numărat la podea — November 22, 2020
[…] 1960, albii reprezentau o majoritate zdrobitoare de 85%. (Fuseseră și peste 90% cu puțin timp înainte.) Apoi au intervenit schimbări în politica de imigrație, dictate din […]
grey — July 25, 2022
Obama got 93% of the black votes but we are supposed to believe that Biden got more black votes than Obama. Obama also set the record for not only the most minorities to register to vote but to actually vote. these numbers were made available in his first year in office. Now for some reason, the Democrats refuse to say how many people register as a democrat why ? Simple if you take the votes Trump got that covers all the republicans and a few others. This means Biden would have had to get more than double new people to register as a democrat to account for his total. This is the same guy who said Black men are super predators and that black kids should not be allowed to go to schools with white kids just to name a few of Biden's documented past. The problem becomes twofold one it is unbelievable that Biden got more minority votes than Obama something I will never believe. Second, statistically, it's impossible for the numbers he got those numbers and the majority of them all came in the early hours what we call dumps. Anyone who has questions about these things are yelled at by democrats and liberals. There is no problem with you asking these questions this is still America you have the right to ask these questions. The people trying to stop you have no right to yell at you they are unamerican. The ironic part is these same people yell they have freedom of speech ?? They do not know what that is if they think only their view is the right one. Lets be honest there are no two people that will agree on everything that is what makes America great. People who have a difference of religion and opinions can still live together peacefully
Dan — August 11, 2022
How many niggers are there out there
The Truth — August 28, 2022
Exit Polls are worthless information. They hold no scientific credence and are nothing more reliable than coin flips. The information gatherers and providers are not reliable sources. This is an article that is 'Much Ado About Nothing' - Simply a hodgepodge of story and fiction!
Dan — September 16, 2022
Spics are going to ruin the country just like they ruined there own shithole country. Deport em all!