Afghanistan

I made a trip south of the border yesterday.  I drove all day to South Bend, IN to drop off a proposal and had dinner in Grand Rapids, MI, so I missed Obama’s Afghanistan speech.  I didn’t miss hearing the fallout from both the left and the right.  So, I’m wondering about what’s going to happen in next year’s midterm elections and I’m curious on what my fellow bloggers and the readers have on the subject.

Let’s turn back the clock.  Sixteen years ago, in late November of 1993 and Bill Clinton’s approval rating dipped under 50%.  Recently, Barack Obama’s ratings also dipped below 50%.  This got me thinking about some other trivia tidbits::

• A complex health care reform plan was under attack by William Kristol.  The “Harry and Louise” ads, funded by lobbyists aired to cast doubt on Clinton’s reform, using the catchy phrase, “they choose, we lose.”

• Clinton, a moderate Democrat, was being pushed around by conservative Democrats in Congress.  They felt he didn’t have a mandate with 43% of the popular vote [1] and won only because Ross Perot split the Republican vote.
• The Democrats enjoyed an 82 seat advantage in the House in 1993.  The current margin is 79 seats.  The Democrats had a 56/44 advantage in 1993.  The current advantage is  59/41.
• The stock market was on an upswing in 1993 {DJIA}.  This year, the market has spent the year recovering and is about where it was in 2004 [2].

On the other hand::

• Unemployment was 6.5% in December 1993, not 10.2% {Nov. 2009} [3]
• The Gulf War {Desert Storm} was a fading memory in 1993, while in 2009 Obama is gearing up for a Afghanistan surge at a $30B/year pricetag.

Historically, in 1994 there was a Republican landslide and the GOP took over both the House and Senate {although Clinton won re-election handily in 1996}.  Will history repeat itself?  I’m not sure.  In 1994, there was a clear and concerted effort by the Republicans.  Newt Gingrich and the “Contract with America” captured the imagination of many voters.  I’m not sure the GOP can pull that off in 2010.

While the Obama Administration has faced criticism from the right, he’s also under fire from the left on the issues of the economy and the war in Afghanistan.  While the Democratic Party machine would resist this, will the current circumstances provide opportunities for left-leaning Congressional candidates a rare window of opportunity?  What about the Republicans?  Will they regroup?  What about Libertarians?  Is this an opportunity for them?

Twitterversion:: Politically in the US, it feels strangely familiar to 1993.But,it’s not. What will happen in 2010 midterms? #ThickCulture http://url.ie/3d5n  @Prof_K

Notes from North of 49ºN

Up here in Canada, Remembrance Day is coming up on the 11th, so plenty of red poppies have cropped up, which is a Commonwealth tradition.  Until Afghanistan, it’s been a while since Canada has been in a “war” and the specifics of getting out of Afghanistan has entered into the news up here.  The Conservatives and the Liberal parties in Canada already agreed in 2008 to withdraw from Afghanistan::

“Canada’s top soldier, Chief of Defence Staff Walter Natynczyk, has given the order for Canadian Forces logistics whizzes to begin mapping out the move, expected to be finished by the end of 2011. That’s in keeping with a 2008 deal between the Harper government and Opposition Liberals that extended the combat mission until July, 2011, with a pullout taking until Dec. 31.”

On a sidenote, shortly after Harper’s announcement, news of the pricetag was released.  It was reported that by 2011 the military mission in could cost up to $1.8B CAN, or $1,500 per household.  While the decision was made last year, the logistics and details of the estimated skeleton crew of 500-600 soldiers to stay behind to protect redevelopment efforts and train local police has remained an open question.  In the interim, the war has become increasingly unpopular and according to Allen Sens, a University of British Columbia political scientist::

“Canada’s government and public is suffering from Afghanistan fatigue…There’s been a lack of progress, and I think the public has a sense that it’s time for other countries to step up and move into the south, where the fighting has been the toughest.”

The Obama Factor

The Liberals in Canada are quick to point out the failure of humanitarian efforts.  Canada had the objective of building 50 schools by 2011 but because of the instability, only five have been built.  So, why should Prime Minister Harper {Conservative} drag his feet on the “drawdown” planning?

“the Prime Minister acknowledged that not every single soldier will return with the combat pullout, and is expected lingering pressure from the Obama administration to help out may lead to a contingent remaining.”

Will Canada cave to possible pressure from the Obama administration to stay?  Politically, the opposition Liberals would be wise to shift as much decision-making on Harper and the Conservatives before triggering another federal election, something the Liberals have been threatening for most of the year.  Obama is faced with a tough decision and is running out of time.  Barack is faced with::

1. A deteriorating situation in Afghanistan
2. White House decisions based on reports painting an incomplete picture
3. Little progress despite doubling troop numbers in 2009 {hence balking at McChrystal’s original recommendations}
4. The election débâcle in Afghanistan where Karzai won amid fraud allegations
5. Waning public support in the US of the war

Obama needs to assess whether his objectives can be met in Afghanistan, specifically in terms of what is possible and probable as outcomes, given a flailing domestic economic situation.  While the stakes are clearly lower for Canada than for the US and Obama, I wonder if Canada will react to any pressure from Obama to stick around, even with just 500-600 “non-combat”  troops.  I also wonder if the Liberals will try to push decisions that may irk Obama onto Harper.

Image:: Iconic Tim Horton’s coffee shop in Kandahar.

Twitterversion:: Canadian Forces pressure deets on wthdrwl fr.Afghanistan. What will Obama do&how will Cdn politcns play it? #ThickCulture http://url.ie/2t3

Song::  Shipbuilding – Elvis Costello & the Attractions {about workers building ships for the UK Falklands War with Argentina}