I may not have found the love of my life on OkCupid, but I did fall in love… with their data analysis!
Their latest super-fun post by Christan Rudder, sent along by Rob Walker, Sara P. and an Anonymous Reader, looks at the lies people tell in their profiles. They do this not by catching any given individual in a lie, but by comparing data on their users to data on the general U.S. population. (It’s unclear what percentage of OkCupid users are American and they don’t specify if they are only looking at U.S. users, so I can’t verify that this is a fair comparison but… if they do restrict the analysis to Americans then…) Since they have 1.51 million active users, we should expect that any distributions should more or less overlap.
But they don’t…
1. Men lie about their height, reporting, on average, that they are about two inches taller than they are. In the figure below, the solid purple line represents the U.S. population, the dashed line represents the reported height of OkCupid users:
2. Women lie about their height too. Here’s the same figure for women (but with a dark purple implied best fit line; you can just ignore it):
3. People exaggerate their income, on average inflating it by about 20 percent (for this data, they controlled for regional differences in income). The figure below, however, shows that the amount of exaggeration is related to age. Both men (blue) and women (red) increasingly inflate their income up until around age 40. After that, they just keep inflating it at about the same rate.
Rudder quips:
A woman may earn 76 cents on the dollar for the same work as a man, but she can fabricate, like, 85 cents no problem.
Oh and, yeah, there’s a reason why the men are lying (no word from Rudder on the women). Income is highly correlated with how many messages a man gets (red = fewer messages; green = more):
4. It also turns out that not all of the “recent pics” are actually recent. This is especially true for pictures rated “hot.” Rudder says that “hot” photos are more than twice as likely as “average” photos to be over three years old (12% and 5% respectively).
And the older a person is, the more likely they are to upload an older photo:
Fun!
Also from OkCupid: the racial politics of dating, what women want, how attractiveness matters, age, gender, and the shape of the dating pool, and older women want more sex.
Lisa Wade, PhD is an Associate Professor at Tulane University. She is the author of American Hookup, a book about college sexual culture; a textbook about gender; and a forthcoming introductory text: Terrible Magnificent Sociology. You can follow her on Twitter and Instagram.
Comments 50
Sam — July 20, 2010
Funny, this was the post that made me fall OUT of love with OKC's data analysis. They seem to assume without evidence that the distribution of particular characteristics is the same for OKC users as it is for the general population. I'll buy that for height, but for income? You've GOT to be kidding me. Critical thinking fail.
shale — July 20, 2010
I signed up for one of these accounts (they are free!) after reading posts on here and elsewhere, and it's true: their data collection and analysis is phenomenal.
As a side note, a friend of mine told me that due to how effective the site is at matching people that have things in common, in some places (they said New York City) people have begun using OkCupid as more of a social networking site than dating site, looking for friends but also business partners, or if they are artists, collaborators (could somebody verify this?). Now might be a good time for OkCupid to change their name and re-brand to something a little more innocuous.
Jon — July 20, 2010
I'm 6' 3'' without any shoes on, but I frequently put 6' 2'' on dating profiles. Why? Because I like the idea of being shorter than I am, not because I care if other people find it more appealing but because I like shorter men and women.
Surely there must be many tall people that make themselves shorter than they are for various reasons which would help offset those that make themselves taller..
JanneSchaffer — July 20, 2010
Is there a link to the original okc-post here anywhere that I'm missing?
Going to okcupid.com just gives me a "join now" thing.
maggie — July 20, 2010
I've never seen the need to lie (or fudge the truth) about myself, I don't want to hook anyone who thinks I'm better looking than I am or something.
You don't even need to answer how much you make, too.
My method seems to have worked, anyway, since I'm engaged to someone I met on the site.
Dvd Avins — July 20, 2010
Bah! Humbbug! Even if the distribution of OKC users *could* be assumed to be similar to the general US population, not everybody will report every item and there would be a bias toward people reporting what would be viewed favorably.
G — July 20, 2010
I didn't realize Christian was still working on this - I thought he was full time Bishop Allening these days. Good for him for scratching his multiple itches, that crafty polymath.
Meredith — July 20, 2010
Is the height analysis stratified by age? Are OkCupid users the same age distribution as the general population?
With the assumption that younger people are taller than older people (CDC has documented a slow increase in their periodic anthropometric publications), if OkC users are generally younger than the general population, that might explain why they tend to be a bit taller.
That said, I agree that people are motivated to lie about their height.
Shermel — July 20, 2010
This is the scariest thing I have ever read.
EMB — July 20, 2010
The height distributions are certainly, in my opinion, the most interesting (especially given how much more reasonable the assumption is that OkCupid users' actual heights are probably distributed the same as the general population than for the other data).
I'm particularly interested in what explanations there might be for the conspicuously not-at-all-normal-looking top-most part of the curves. For men, perhaps it represents an extra tendency for men who are 5'10"-5'11" to "round up" to 6', but I can't think of any particular explanations for the women.
Jon — July 20, 2010
While the data are interesting, the data really only tell us about the OKC users. Yes, Rudder is working with a data set of 1.51 million OKC active users, but without more descriptive data we do not know just how this set compares to the general population. Are the OKC active users disproportionately more wealthy than the general U.S. population? More educated? Of course, how would we really know since Rudder seemingly questions his own data)
Without that information, it is pointless to assume that the difference between reported and expected outcomes is the result of lying. Why would we think the income distribution, for example, of the OKC users would follow the expected distribution? We might if the OKC users are a representative sample of the general population, but that’s not necessarily a given.
Basiorana — July 20, 2010
I find it interesting that young wealthy persons get very few replies-- I'm guessing people think they're lying if they claim to make that much?
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Obvious3rdVariableProblem — July 21, 2010
Wow so many problems with this analysis.
I bet the average age on the site is well below the U.S population average. That doesn't mean people are lying about their age. It means OKcupid users differ from the general population.
I think we can safely assume that people on subscription dating sites really do have higher incomes than other people and come from higher SES categories on average.
We know that people from higher SES are taller, so of course people on the site will be taller than average. The fact that it is only 1-2 inches suggests that people are being largely truthful.
camipco — July 21, 2010
Is it completely implausible that the OKCupid sample is shifted from the average population? Maybe shorter people are less confident and therefore less likely to post a profile. More likely, maybe the income data is off because poorer people are less likely to own a computer / have the disposable income or leisure time to date?
It's at least possible, and I don't see any strong justification for jumping to the conclusion that the differences are due to deception.
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leontineg — July 21, 2010
Daniel Ariely has done a ton of research on this. Among other things, he points out that people on dating sites appear to be obsessed with height and income, because those are two of the very few variables they are given to sort data by.
If people are interested in more analysis of this info and how people date online, they should look him up - he did an interview about it recently on NPR to promote his new book.
Devin — July 24, 2010
Thanks for the shout about Daniel Ariely, I missed him on NPR but his research really makes this whole OKcupid finding thing come out in a slightly better light. Too many variables are missing to have such a generalized analysis of an entire sect of people. Like one person said, this just covers OKcupid users; not all users of dating sites, not all PEOPLE dating who don't USE dating sites or may meet through social networks like Facebook or Myspace, etc. It's an interesting set of data, but you just have to take it for face value and realize the things that are missing from it, like "who is lying about their age, what people USE okcupid in the first place, what's the average age of the user, etc etc, the list goes on.
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