{"id":4960,"date":"2016-02-15T17:45:14","date_gmt":"2016-02-15T22:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/?p=4960"},"modified":"2016-02-15T17:45:14","modified_gmt":"2016-02-15T22:45:14","slug":"cant-buy-me-wins-this-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/2016\/02\/15\/cant-buy-me-wins-this-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Can’t Buy Me Wins … This Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at my web site.<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n

Arsenal\u2019s victory with a breathtaking extra time goal by Danny Welbeck this past weekend<\/a> notwithstanding, Leicester City\u2019s season has had the kind of storyline we normally only see in Hollywood movies. This isn\u2019t a March Madness Cinderella team upsetting Duke in a one off win. Leicester is a team with a wage budget less than a quarter of the size of the league favorites. Leicester finished 14th in the English Premier League last season. Leicester\u2019s leading scorer this year, Jamie Vardy, had 5 goals in 36 matches last season.<\/p>\n

But this season, Leicester has had sustained success, leading the league through the first two-thirds of the season and downing major clubs like Man City. Vardy has become a hero, leading the league with 19 goals<\/a>. As Sports Illustrated<\/em> soccer writer, Grant Wahl, put it on Twitter,<\/p>\n

\n

Closest thing in US sports to what Leicester is doing? The movie Hoosiers.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Grant Wahl (@GrantWahl) February 6, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But just how unusual is this season? Very. Compared to the socialist sports leagues of the United States<\/a> with their strict salary caps, the EPL is the Wild West where top teams can pay players as much as their owners are willing to spend. It has led to massive inequality between clubs with four teams spending at least \u00a3100 million more in player salaries than most of the rest. Unsurprisingly, it is usually the case that clubs that pay for better talent do better.<\/p>\n

Taking data on club wage bills and season point total from the past five years\u00b9, I produced the figure below that charts the relationship between spending and success for the four campaigns from 2010\/11-2014\/15 in red<\/span> (with some assistance from my Skidmore colleague, Michael Lopez, who has studied salary and wins in MLB<\/a>). In a normal season, \u00a325 million in additional wage spending is worth about 6 points (or two wins). Moreover, team simply do not join the rarefied club of 75+ points in a season without a wage bill north of \u00a3140 million.<\/p>\n

\"EPL<\/a><\/p>\n

This season broke that (see the blue points<\/span>). The aristocrats were deposed (well, at least Chelsea and Liverpool). Southampton and West Ham are in positions to win Champions\u2019 League spots. As of writing, positions 5 and 14 on the table are separated by only 3 wins. This season, \u00a325 million in additional wage spending is worth about half a win.<\/p>\n

And, well, Leicester \u2026 as NBCSN commentator Peter Drury exclaimed during Leicester City\u2019s victory over Manchester City, \u201cThey\u2019re not just beating the richest club in the land! They\u2019re rippin\u2019 them on their own patch! Why shouldn\u2019t they be champions?\u201d As the figure show, Leicester of this season is an unbelievable outlier. Over the past five years, the next closest club with a wage bill under \u00a350 million had 22 fewer points (7 wins)!<\/p>\n

What explains the wilting effect of wages on points? It\u2019s easy for the punditocracy to come up with individual accounts. Leicester\u2019s success is due to its \u201cteam spirit and togetherness<\/a>.\u201d The seeds of Chelsea\u2019s unprecedented misfortunes<\/a> were visible in their low-scoring title year last season. But the truth is that even the data-equipped are grasping for answers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It may just turn out that 2015\/16 was an outlier season and that the clubs with the deep pockets will buy their way to success again next season. For now, let\u2019s just enjoy the competitive balance and hope that Leicester can win a title for underdogs everywhere.<\/p>\n

Footnotes<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00b9Because the current season is still underway, I estimated this season\u2019s final point total based on current standings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cross-posted at my web site. Arsenal\u2019s victory with a breathtaking extra time goal by Danny Welbeck this past weekend notwithstanding, Leicester City\u2019s season has had the kind of storyline we normally only see in Hollywood movies. This isn\u2019t a March Madness Cinderella team upsetting Duke in a one off win. Leicester is a team with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4960"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4961,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4960\/revisions\/4961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/thickculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}