{"id":68607,"date":"2016-03-09T09:45:47","date_gmt":"2016-03-09T14:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/?p=68607"},"modified":"2016-03-07T13:12:15","modified_gmt":"2016-03-07T18:12:15","slug":"the-one-thing-that-might-doom-trump-in-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/2016\/03\/09\/the-one-thing-that-might-doom-trump-in-november\/","title":{"rendered":"The one thing that might doom Trump in November"},"content":{"rendered":"

Race, obviously.<\/em><\/p>\n

The other day I wondered\u00a0what issues offered potential<\/a> for the left-side party to raid the right-side for some voters. But that\u2019s abstract compared to this actual election. This is my thought on what happens if it comes down to Trump and Clinton.<\/p>\n

John Cassidy at the New Yorker<\/em> runs through some speculation<\/a> about how Trump could win a general election. It seems to boil down to bringing in enough White working-class voters to win Rustbelt states that Obama won like Michigan (Obama +9.5%), Pennsylvania (Obama +5.2%), and Ohio (Obama +1.9%). Setting aside\u00a0his prospects among Whites, I\u2019m very skeptical he can win those states (or some others) with basically no Black and very few Latino votes.<\/p>\n

To show the depth of ill will between Trump\u00a0and African Americans, here are the feeling thermometer distributions\u00a0from the 2016 ANES Pilot Study<\/a>, taken in late January. People were asked to rate candidates from 0 (very cold, unfavorable) to 100 (very warm, favorable).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Lots of people hate Trump, but no group hates him like African Americans (other variables, like age and education, perform as expected, but nothing is as strong).\u00a0Obama got something more than 90% of Black vote<\/a> in 2012. It\u2019s hard to see even 10% of Black voters going for Trump. Especially given Hillary Clinton as an opponent. She might not inspire the same turnout as Obama, but she\u2019s very popular among Black voters. Here are her thermometers:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That Black Clinton thermometer is a basically a mirror-image of the one for Trump.\u00a0The poor feeling toward Clinton among Whites is obviously a problem, but I still think Blacks and Hispanics can sink Trump.<\/p>\n

For what it\u2019s worth, the racial\u00a0feeling seems mutual. ANES\u00a0also asked the feeling thermometer about Blacks. Here are the White feelings toward Blacks, adjusted for age, gender, and education level \u2014 according to their feelings toward Trump:
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nThe linear trend, which is highly significant, is about one-eighth of a point down on Blacks for every point up on Trump. That\u2019s America for you \u2013 even though Trump is mostly going after immigrants and Muslims in this election, racism is always also about the\u00a0Black-White thing.<\/p>\n

(Follow the elections tag<\/a> for the series.)<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: I\u2019m not a political polling expert, this isn\u2019t real research and it hasn\u2019t been reviewed, and I could be completely wrong.<\/em><\/p>\n

Philip N. Cohen is a professor of sociology at the University of Maryland, College Park, and writes the blog Family Inequality<\/a>, where this post originally appeared. You can follow him on Twitter<\/a> or\u00a0Facebook<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Race, obviously. The other day I wondered\u00a0what issues offered potential for the left-side party to raid the right-side for some voters. But that\u2019s abstract compared to this actual election. This is my thought on what happens if it comes down to Trump and Clinton. John Cassidy at the New Yorker runs through some speculation about […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":68608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[23656,2125,3920,85,20068,283,1760,1754,23707,20063,1757,42,23659],"class_list":["post-68607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-immigrants-prejudicediscrimination","tag-immigrationcitizenship","tag-nation-united-states","tag-politics","tag-politics-election-2016","tag-prejudicediscrimination","tag-raceethnicity-blacksafricans","tag-raceethnicity-latinos","tag-raceethnicity-politics","tag-raceethnicity-prejudicediscrimination","tag-raceethnicity-whiteseuropeans","tag-religion","tag-religion-prejudicediscrimination"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/files\/2016\/03\/4-1.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68607"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68607\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68609,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68607\/revisions\/68609"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/socimages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}