{"id":416,"date":"2005-06-10T04:21:00","date_gmt":"2005-06-10T10:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/2005\/06\/10\/the-crime-drop-continues-2\/"},"modified":"2005-06-10T04:21:00","modified_gmt":"2005-06-10T10:21:00","slug":"the-crime-drop-continues-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/2005\/06\/10\/the-crime-drop-continues-2\/","title":{"rendered":"the crime drop continues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve been teaching juvenile delinquency and criminology since the mid-1990s. Each year, I show my classes how the crime rate has generally declined as measured by household victimization or crimes known to the police. At the end of each term, however, I always get a few papers that lead off by citing &#8220;alarming increases&#8221; in crime\/homicide\/violence. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fbi.gov\/pressrel\/pressrel05\/preliminary060605.htm\">FBI&#8217;s preliminary numbers for 2004<\/a> again show a drop of 1.7% for property crime and 1.8% for violent crime nationally since 2003. For the past 10 years, the news has been great with regard to <em>trend<\/em>, though crime <em>levels<\/em> remain unacceptably high in many communities.<\/p>\n<p>Some criminologists have been predicting a crime surge, but I see room for further reductions &#8212; particularly if graduation rates and labor markets improve. I guess a better way to put it is that I haven&#8217;t been convinced that the pessimistic predictions are justified by much more than regression to the apparent &#8220;mean&#8221; established in the worst of the bad old days. It is very tough to make crime projections over the long-term, since the effects of things like age structure, economic performance, and incarceration seem to vary quite a bit over time (that is, I think a model predicting crime in the 1960s wouldn&#8217;t do so well in explaining 1990s trends). In any case, I now warn my classes that I will completely freak out if they cite &#8220;alarming&#8221; increases without indicating precisely <em>what <\/em>has increased and <em>when <\/em>it began to rise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve been teaching juvenile delinquency and criminology since the mid-1990s. Each year, I show my classes how the crime rate has generally declined as measured by household victimization or crimes known to the police. At the end of each term, however, I always get a few papers that lead off by citing &#8220;alarming increases&#8221; in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thesocietypages.org\/pubcrim\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}