Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark

Screencap from Sharron Angle's website

Embattled Senate Democrat and majority leader Harry Reid seems to be on a rebound after crashing and burning in the polls earlier in the year. Republican challenger Sharron Angle with endorsements from the Tea Party movement and social conservatives won the primary and it looked like Reid was in for an autumn drubbing. She was riding high in the polls after her primary win, with a comfortable 50-39% margin. She’s slipped ever since and the latest Rasmussen poll has her in a statistical tie with Reid, with 11% supporting another candidate or not sure. Reid’s campaign has tried to characterize Angle as too extreme with her views with the help of Obama, which could sway moderate independents and Republicans.

Her latest spot is focusing on unemployment which is a concern of residents, as the rate shot up to 14%::

I’m not sure how effective this ad is. It’s light on content and doesn’t really hit Reid that hard, other than saying that Nevada is worse off jobwise on his watch.

Both candidates have problems with unfavourable perceptions, which is unlikely to motivate voters to head to the polls. Democrats are supporting Reid at 82%, while Angle is getting 75% from Republicans. The independents have favoured Angle with a 52% to 29% margin. Democrats outnumber Republicans, with independents making up a little over 15% of the registered voters.

Immigration is an issue Angle might get traction with, as the Rasmussen poll finds 65% support for a law like Arizona’s controversial immigration law in Nevada. I’m not sure moving far to the right makes the most sense, particularly in an “unpopularity” contest, i.e., a battle to be the least unpopular. Being “extreme” or out there doesn’t garner acceptance, which I think is the key to this race…get the voters to come out and vote for you, even if they’re holding their nose.

So, what’s the latest? What does she do? She states that her campaign to defeat Reid is God’s calling::

When God calls you he also equips you and He doesn’t just say, ‘Well today you’re going to run against Harry Reid,’ the tea party favorite said.

In the Bible ‘Moses has his preparatory time. Paul had his preparatory time. Even Jesus had his preparatory time,’ the former legislator said, citing her years in public office as her preparation for the race.

‘God knew all of this in advance,’ Angle added. ‘I don’t know what’s coming up tomorrow but I do know that He is there. He saw it and that He has provided a way of escape and a way for me to endure.'”

Well, this is one way to go. We’ll see how it works out.

Song:: OMD-‘Joan of Arc {Maid of Orléans}’

Twitterversion:: [blog] Harry Reid battling to keep his seat in Nevada. Polls show a tight race & opponent states campaign is God’s calling.@Prof_K

Notes from north of 49ºN.

I now live in a relatively small country, ranked 36th. in population, at 33.7M {versus 306.7M in the US}, but in the top 10 in terms of economies with a GDP of $1.3T {#9 ranking}, versus 13.8T for the US {#1 ranking}.  I mention this, as I wonder about scale and innovation, i.e., can smaller countries effectively compete in technology in a global environment?  One of my interests in innovation is biotechnology, a “new economy” area focusing on better outcomes for “health, the environment, and for industrial, agricultural and energy production.”  Advances in genetics are creating a race for companies and countries, with the idea of dominating the biotech field in order to enjoying profits and prosperity.

Last summer, I saw on a Canadian network a segment on how Canadian government investments in biotech were getting bought up by US firms, implying that the relatively small Canadian government was, in part, subsidizing innovations flowing south of the border.  The Matthew effect kicks in, as rich get richer and the poor get poorer, given that Canadian firms were being snapped up by US firms with deep pockets, transferring value southward.  According to a Globe & Mail article {click on license option}, another issue is that Canadian venture capital is lacking, so Canadian biotech firms often are capitalized by US venture capital firms that like to keep close tabs on operations and encourage offices/operations in the US.

Well, is Canada even a player in this biotech area?

biotechoecd

According to 2006 OECD data, Canada is a player in terms of the number of firms {532}, the number of patents {ranked #6 in 2004}, and revenues {$83M}, along with an 11% compound annual growth rate {CAGR} of revenues from 1999-2005.

Given how collaboration and capital are now global, does it even matter where innovations are incubated?  A study by Bagchi-Sen & Scully {2004} is illuminating.  They divide biotech forms into two categories:: high R&D intensity and low R&D intensity.  Each has a different take with respect to strategies within the context of globalization::

  • High R&D Intensity:: Ties to local universities/Canadian researchers & collaboration with pharmaceutical companies, but desire global capital inflows.  Prototypical firm is in health theraputics.
  • Low R&D Intensity:: Emphasis on local production and development of Canadian market.  Focus on strategic alliances with foreign firms.  Prototypical firm is in diagnostics or agricultural biotech.

In terms of innovation policy, this brings up interesting food for thought for Canadian politicians in light of this recession.  Thanks to Barack Obama, Canada’s large neighbour to the south is pumping $21.5B of stimulus towards science and technology, which begs the question, how will this affect Canada?

It makes sense that Canadian policy would encourage the projects of low-intensity R&D firms with ties to the US, as these firms:: may be able to capitalize on relationships with stimulus-receiving firms, will develop innovations for the Canadian market, and will be focused on local Canadian production and manufacturing.  The high-intensity R&D firms could use funding {hint:: even more than $1B+CAN stimulus} that focuses on spurring innovations and the building of a sustainable base of Canadian talent and resources.  Dalton McGuinty’s {Liberal Premiere} efforts in Ontario might be a step in the right direction, but I’m not seeing clearly how this all fits together with an economic recovery plan.  Biotech. is not without risks, particularly with respect to agricultural biotech, which consumers are uncertain of.  Activists have alerted consumers with terms like “Frankenfood” for genetically-modified organisms {GMOs} and Monsanto’s lawsuits against journalists and farmers don’t help the cause.  So, maybe ag. biotech is a lose, but developing Canadian competitive advantage in innovations, in terms of other forms of biotech, nanotechnologies, clean energy, and green collar jobs, may provide fertile terrain for politicians and policymakers.

Well, enough of this talk of the “new economy” of biotech and innovations, what about the old economy, still prevalent in many parts of Canada?  Globalization has drawn Stephen Harper’s {Prime Minister} Conservative government into bailout fever to the tune of $9.5B, in order to secure that 16% of GM’s production remains in Canada.  This includes $3.1B that the Province of Ontario ponied up by Dalton McGuinty’s government.  Unfortunately, this might only save 4,400 jobs, after projected layoffs, according to CBC::


Given how the Tories and the Grits have played their cards in this {along with playing a current game of Federal “chicken”}, I see an opportunity for the NDP to make inroads with their platform based on developing new technologies and saving jobs.  Alas, more on “GMfail” and job losses in Canada in a future post.

So, it looks like nation matters, but in a global milieu.  Nothing surprising.  If you were to advise Canadian politicians, should new technologies {e.g., biotech, green, energy} be developed more aggressively {or at least explored} and does it make sense to commit billions to save jobs with an untested GM restructuring?

Twitterversion:: #newblogpost How should Canada compete {bio}tech, given globalzatn, US domnce, & recession? #GMfail bailout, good idea? http://bit.ly/18bBq8 @Prof_K

Song:: Genetic Engineering – Orchestral Manoeuvres In The Dark

Video::