Harry Reid

Embattled Senate Democrat and majority leader Harry Reid seems to be on a rebound after crashing and burning in the polls earlier in the year. Republican challenger Sharron Angle with endorsements from the Tea Party movement and social conservatives won the primary and it looked like Reid was in for an autumn drubbing. She was riding high in the polls after her primary win, with a comfortable 50-39% margin. She’s slipped ever since and the latest Rasmussen poll has her in a statistical tie with Reid, with 11% supporting another candidate or not sure. Reid’s campaign has tried to characterize Angle as too extreme with her views with the help of Obama, which could sway moderate independents and Republicans.

Her latest spot is focusing on unemployment which is a concern of residents, as the rate shot up to 14%::

I’m not sure how effective this ad is. It’s light on content and doesn’t really hit Reid that hard, other than saying that Nevada is worse off jobwise on his watch.

Both candidates have problems with unfavourable perceptions, which is unlikely to motivate voters to head to the polls. Democrats are supporting Reid at 82%, while Angle is getting 75% from Republicans. The independents have favoured Angle with a 52% to 29% margin. Democrats outnumber Republicans, with independents making up a little over 15% of the registered voters.

Immigration is an issue Angle might get traction with, as the Rasmussen poll finds 65% support for a law like Arizona’s controversial immigration law in Nevada. I’m not sure moving far to the right makes the most sense, particularly in an “unpopularity” contest, i.e., a battle to be the least unpopular. Being “extreme” or out there doesn’t garner acceptance, which I think is the key to this race…get the voters to come out and vote for you, even if they’re holding their nose.

So, what’s the latest? What does she do? She states that her campaign to defeat Reid is God’s calling::

“When God calls you he also equips you and He doesn’t just say, ‘Well today you’re going to run against Harry Reid,’ the tea party favorite said.

In the Bible ‘Moses has his preparatory time. Paul had his preparatory time. Even Jesus had his preparatory time,’ the former legislator said, citing her years in public office as her preparation for the race.

‘God knew all of this in advance,’ Angle added. ‘I don’t know what’s coming up tomorrow but I do know that He is there. He saw it and that He has provided a way of escape and a way for me to endure.'”

Well, this is one way to go. We’ll see how it works out.

Song:: OMD-‘Joan of Arc {Maid of Orléans}’

Twitterversion:: [blog] Harry Reid battling to keep his seat in Nevada. Polls show a tight race & opponent states campaign is God’s calling.@Prof_K

Video:: Biden to Obama, “This is a big f*cking deal”

The signing of the healthcare bill last week was significant in more ways than one. I feel it galvanized the Democrats and I also feel it was critical for Obama to make the healthcare bill “personal” and get fellow Democrats to be rowing in the same direction. I think this was quite a challenge, as the liberal factions of the party are ideologically distinct from the more conservative Blue Dog Democrats.

In the wake of the signing, the Democrats got good news in the form of a public opinion poll reporting 49% saying the bill was a good thing, compared to 40% saying it was bad. There was also a spike in donations, with $1M pouring in last Tuesday without a direct ask.

There has been a backlash and alleged incidents of offices being vandalized. The Republicans needed to respond to thwart any momentum, but I’m not convinced their strategy is sound. Sarah Palin started a bit of controversy with her reload and targeting comments in a speech in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s hometown of Searchlight, NV::

The media tried to whip Sarah Palin’s “targeting” and “reload” comments into pageview fodder, but I think the big issue for Republicans is a lack of a message that resonates with a country in the economic doldrums. John McCain claims that Palin’s words are just political rhetoric::

While this all makes for good drama, I’m not sure how effective this type of press coverage is in building support. I can’t help but think of the utter carnage of the 1994 midterm elections. Bill Clinton was weakened by a lack of support in Congress from his own party as a Washington outsider and…Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America. This C-SPAN footage is a bit dry, but it shows a systematic delineation of undermining public support of Democrats and was more successful than many anticipated. The Democrats would go on to lose 8 seats in the Senate and 54 in the House, earning a majority in both.

I think there was and perhaps still is an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up quite a few seats, but there needs to be rhetoric that moderates can sink their teeth into. Without a more substantial agenda resonating, I predict low turnout, as voters sit the midterms out.

Twitterversion:: Post healthcare, Dems get bump in polls & donations last wk. Rep. backlash ensues. Doubtful if 2010 will be another 1994 @Prof_K

Song:: Okkervil River-‘Our Life Is Not a Movie’