Gordon Brown

I wish I could take credit for the headline, but credit must go to Anne Perkins of The Guardian-UK. Earlier today, Labour leader Gordon Brown tendered his resignation to the Queen after it looks like the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives are close to striking a deal. This would hand the Prime Minister spot to Tory leader, David Cameron, in a coalition that will have a majority of the seats in Parliament. Six months ago, Clegg had not many good things to say about the Tories::

“If progressives are to avoid being marginalised by an ideologically-barren Conservative party, bereft of any discernible convictions other than a sense of entitlement that is now their turn to govern, then the progressive forces in British politics must regroup under a new banner.”

I’m curious what this coalition will look like, given how a Lib-Con coalition will make for some strange bedfellows. Indeed, Anne is right, as the Conservatives won’t just be holding hands with the Lib Dems, but sharing power and cabinet seats.

I’m not against coalitions or parties changing their stances on issues, as I’ve blogged about earlier today on rhizomicon. Where things get dicey is keeping the coalition together and making sure the voters in the MP’s constituencies are on-board. Also, Perkins points out that such coalitions are rare and usually occur under dire circumstances::

“In Westminster history, coalition has always been about demonstrating unity in crisis, leading by example in a response to war or national disaster. Times are hard; the economic situation is bleak. But we are not living in a time of national catastrophe. At least not yet.”

On the web, pundits, journalists, and commentors on news sites are shouting “sellout” on the part of Nick Clegg and David Cameron. While the specifics aren’t out, the rumour mill is that the Lib Dems made concessions on::

1. Immigration amnesty
2. Defence policy & Trident
3. Closer ties to Europe

Will these be dealbreakers to Lib-Dem MPs, who still need to ratify the deal, and those who supported them? The Lib-Dems were a platform of change and while a coalition implies concessions on both sides, will a Lib-Con coalition leave a bad taste in the mouths of many?

David Cameron doesn’t need the support of his party, but I question how hard-line conservatives will perceive this power sharing arrangement.

Song:: Selecter-‘Selling Out Your Future’

Twitterversion:: UK Lib-Con coalition imminent, but as Ann Perkins says “not a marriage of convenience but actual sex” #ThickCulture @Prof_K

Earlier in the month, I blogged about the forthcoming UK elections and on Rhizomicon, I blogged about the first-ever debate of the party leaders. In the first debate, the leader of the third-party challenging Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, made a strong showing. The above video is about the second debate held in Bristol on foreign affairs. Both Labour {Gordon Brown} and the Conservatives {Nick Cameron} made a point of attacking Clegg, in a bid to undermine support for the Liberal Democrats and increase the chance of obtaining a majority by winning swing ridings constituencies {districts}. Clegg seemed to hold his own. The recent polls are such that an outright majority is unlikely, unless the LibDems collapse between now and 5 May. This means that a hung Parliament is likely. The last debate will be on 29 April in the Midlands on economic policy. Get your popcorn ready. Canadians can watch on cable or online at CPAC. The other debates are archived on the link. Post a comment if you can watch them in the US or wherever you may be outside of Canada.

Twitterversion:: Second UK Debate has LibDem Nick Clegg hanging tough against Labour & Tories. Hung Parliament increasingly likely. #ThickCulture @Prof_K

Song:: The Jam-”A’ Bomb in Wardour Street’

I read several articles about a Tory surge in the polls in the UK, but this Guardian article says it might be overplayed. Brown dissolved Parliament and an election has been set for 6 May, a mercifully short election season, when compared to the US. Labour, in power since 1997, back in the heady days when Tony Blair was the face of a new Labour party, ending the 18-year run of the Conservatives. I’ve read that after 18 years in power, the tories were in disarray and parallels have been drawn between the Thatcher-Major era and W’s 2000-2008 presidencies.

Labour is saddled with a sagging UK economy and the public is tired of politicians and being perceived as an outsider will be beneficial. The economy is the major issue, although immigration, unemployment, and the deficit are also issues voters care about. The overall voting intent paints a grim picture, but the election will hinge upon what happens in the ridings and which party gets a majority of seats::

If no party gets a majority, the result will be a hung parliament and parties working in coalitions, which some say makes investors uneasy and can make enacting economy-fixing policy difficult. This article echoes these sentiments and interprets the polls as pointing to a hung Parliament.

The expectation is the election to be hotly contested and there will be American-style televised debates for the first time. There will be three themed debates in different parts of the country. Frontrunners typically eschew elections. Since Labour is behind in the polls, allowing debates may allow Labour to redefine itself and come across as “outsiders” out to reform government. The scuttlebutt says that Conservative Leader, David Cameron, has a winsome manner in the spirit of Blair, with a message of compassionate conservatism. {The Conservatives have tried to shed the reputation of being “nasty” and have embraced gays, women, and ethnic minoriries, at least at the surface.} Brown has the reputation of being scholarly and a tad dry. This may remind Canadians of Stéphane Dion, the immediate-past Liberal Leader.

Without digging deep into the poll numbers, my 40,000′ take is the winner will be the party who appears most credible with the economy. The financial crisis stung the UK and rank-and-file workers are still fuming about “fat cats”. Given this, a Keynesian approach {addressing unemployment} in concert with finance reform should give Labour quite a bit of mileage. Both the Labour and Conservative parties supports involvement in Afghanistan, which may be increasingly tough sells, given domestic spending and deficit concerns.

Update {6 April 2010, 6:10PM EDT}:: My blog post on rhizomicon has video clips of PMQs, where Cameron and Brown are going toe-to-toe in a Q&A.

Twitterversion:: @gordonbrown’s Labour {UK}, in for a fight with upcoming elections against David Cameron’s @conservatives. #ThickCulture @Prof_K

Song:: George Michael-‘Shoot the Dog’ {2002}, backstory here.