GDP

First off, I think there’s little that can be done about the forthcoming yearly deficits and total debt of the US federal government. Reigning in spending at this point will just make a bad situation worse. Nevertheless, what are the implications of the deficit. People have views about it, as Pew Research shows. It is currently #7, in terms of people’s top priorities and for the past two years, both Republicans and Democrats see it as a priority, being within a percentage point of each other. Over the years, the concern has gone up and down::

What I’m not sure is whether or not people get the implications of a huge debt. I remember in macroeconomics being taught about “crowding out”, where government spending and resultant borrowing “crowds out” entities seeking capital in lending markets and drives up interest rates.  Now, the Wall Street Journal is singing cassandra’s tune, warning that foreign creditors holding US Treasury securities is a threat to the nation’s national security and Leon Panetta, CIA Director, agrees::

I don’t see this happening. Why? I think we’re in for the dollar depreciating, as I see policies on the horizon that will lead to inflation, higher interest rates, and a devalued dollar, as does Jim Jubak at MSN. Holding the dollar won’t have the appeal it once had, given that it’s likely to devalue, and the Chinese are already curbing their appetite for US debt. In any case, this level of debt isn’t a “game over” situation and the US won’t go bankrupt, no matter which “expert” says it on CNN.

Currently, inflation is practically non-existant, as is nominal GDP {i.e., national income} growth, and interest rates are rock bottom.  The inflation and interest rates give the economy some degrees of freedom. A more troubling issue is GDP growth, which might be hindered by structural problems in the economy. We may not “grow” out of this, where economic growth increases incomes and tax revenues. Unemployment is the highest it’s been since 1983 and will be a political hot button issue in 2010.

As for deficit spending and the increasing debt, total public debt as a percentage of GDP {a debt to income ratio} is high, approaching the levels it was in the late 1940s. While the numbers are mind-boggling, the debt isn’t unprecedented.

I’m not staying up at night worrying about the deficit, although there will be several policy implications::

1. The true danger of the deficit spending is if there isn’t a multiplier effect, i.e., the impact of a dollar spent is some multiple of that dollar. I’m afraid that spending may not be directed towards projects/endeavours that get the most “bang” for their buck.
2. Too much emphasis on the deficit may hamper spending that achieves multiplier effects.
3. Read my lips, expect higher taxes in the long haul.
4. There will political pressure to reduce unemployment and {in my opinion} spending should focus on this, in ways that achieve a multiplier effect, e.g., jobs that also increase innovativeness and/or productivity or improve infrastructure.
5. Expect programme cuts and pressures towards privatization.
6. Expect reductions in military spending.

Ideally, deficit spending is an “investment” in the country when there aren’t tax revenues to cover it, as in a recession. The real question shouldn’t be how much is being spent, but how and where it’s being spent.

Twitterversion:: Are you concerned about the US deficit? Blog post focusing on the real implications of running up the bills. @Prof_K

Song:: Hem-“When I Was Drinking”

“Living it up when the rent was due
With nothing and no one to live up to”

Notes from north of 49ºN

In the Twittersphere, this Ottawa Citizen article on green stimulus has been going around, based on a forthcoming UN report.  While 15% of the $3.1T in global stimulus investments are green, Canada, under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper is lagging behind {See data below the jump}, barely in the top 10 in amount spent and percentage of green stimulus.  South Korea is leading the way, in terms of both amount spent and percent of stimulus spending, while the US is third in total green stimulus spending.  Not surprising, given news reports up in Canada::

“A common theme, though, appears to be a series of delays in approvals and disbursements, with less than one-quarter likely to be spent in 2009.”

The UN report recommends that G20 countries increase the rates of investments in green infrastructure and stimulus.  Five key areas for focus were identified::

1. energy efficiency in old and new buildings
2. renewable energy technologies such as wind power
3. sustainable transport technologies such as hybrid vehicles or high-speed rail
4. global ecological infrastructure such as forests
5. sustainable agriculture

I haven’t crunched any numbers, but looking at the list, I think there’s an interaction effect with policy support of green initiatives and clusterings of firms with green innovation strategies.  One of the questions I had is whether, thus far, is the idea that “green” is viewed as a luxury.  While imperfect, I wanted to see the relationship between richer nations {higher GDP per capita} and investment in green stimulus {per capita}.  I crunched these numbers (below the jump, with the GDP data taken from the IMF 2008 data}.  While there are not enough data points to make strong inferences about the data relationship, the following graph tells a story.  South Korea skews the curve::

Taking the US & South Korea out, increases in green stimulus increases at a decreasing rate with respect to higher levels of GDP::

So, looking at the data, South Korea and China are investing in green technologies, despite having lower average national incomes.  It would be interesting to monitor which technologies are being invested in the various countries and track the outcomes.  Canada should heed what’s going on, as they try to shift towards innovation and away from natural resource extraction.

Twitterversion:: #PMHarper’s #Canada lagging #G20 in green stimulus innov. spendng. Richer tend2 spend+, but China& S.Korea making a play. http://url.ie/2ihx @Prof_K

Song:: Everythings Gone Green (Edit) – New Order

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