I think it’s incredibly misleading to formulate graphs & charts with only those specific years you pinned & to also claim to know when a sitcom was at its peek. Will and Grace is currently in syndication & has been since their 100th episode. I, for one, didn’t ever see the show during its prime time evening spot but I sure have seen every episode multiple times (because it’s a hilarious show). On any given day between 2001 & today, people can catch episodes of Will & Grace on multiple different channels at all times of the day & night. I think in order to be more accurate you’d need analyze ratings for every slot it plays in & get a better idea for the actual numbers of viewers that were potentially influenced. Your info is really only taking into account a teeny sliver of the pie.

If we assume all of that is correct, then your article on the Will & Grace Effect might be due for revisions. I don’t know the names of the polls or who conducted them, Ashby doesn’t say. I’m assuming he put footnotes in his book but I’m actually listening to it on audio because it’s like 10 years long. Wish I could provide more specifics. Maybe somebody else has the paperback.

Pop culture absolutely has an effect. Is it a primary cause for major societal change? Doubtful, but to out right dismiss it’s effectiveness probably isn’t too wise.

I am a bit disappointed with this post, and similar arguments that attempt to debunk the importance of an event (“Will & Grace”) in some sort of long-term trend or shift (public opinion on gay marriage/same-sex relations). You’re right to note that the relatively smooth trend that pre-dates the start of the show suggests that other forces are in play, but seriously, is anyone arguing that they weren’t? Will & Grace would never have aired without a substantial audience willing to watch an out lead character and watch plotlines in part focused on his relationships with other men. So, the fact that the trend pre-dates the show is not particularly surprising. 

But the fact that the trend pre-dates the show does not necessarily imply that it would have continued – or continued as strongly – without the show! In other words, continuation of a trend calls for explanation just as much as discontinuities. Who’s to say that without W&G, the trend would have ended or reversed? It doesn’t seem likely, but the data don’t come close to ruling it out.

Again, I don’t think W&G was more important than many other changes and trends during this period. But I think this sort of argument is too quickly dismissive. 

A more persuasive analysis would need to consider indirect and direct effects (like Rosenberg’s excellent discussion of the non-importance of Brown v. Board to the growth of the civil rights movement and to desegregation – agree or disagree, it’s very carefully argued), and would at least attempt to look at age effects. For example, if the GSS data show a spike immediately following the show’s end, maybe that has to do with teenagers who watched the show for its entire run and finally aged into the GSS sample, and thus the big effect of W&G actually came after its end. I don’t have evidence that that is the case, but it’s certainly possible.

This sort of post is extremely helpful to rein in hyperbolic rhetoric (ZOMB! W&G changed everything!), but only when properly hedged (e.g. causality is hard and messy and public opinion is shaped by all sorts of things).

This makes me think a bit about Mad Men and the 50’s/60’s craze that emerged at about the same time as the show started. It’s kind of a different situation, since fashion journalists deliberately draw on the show to spark interest in the fashion they’re advertising, but one might still question wether the show would have been such a cult if the winds weren’t blowing in that direction already.

One statistic that has also steadily increased over the last two decades is the number of Americans who have a close friend or relative who they know to be gay. In the 1990s, we were looking at a percentage in the low 40s. By 2010, that had gone up to 49%. A 2012 CNN poll posits that number to have jumped to 60%.

Of all the sociopolitical changes over recent years, this is the most persuasively significant; for the first time over half of Americans are now personally invested in the happiness and well-being of someone who is openly gay. While the media might like to flatter themselves for bringing about social change, I’m convinced that it’s really the millions of people who have chosen to be “out” that have accelerated the gains in acceptance and support of our civil rights.

Still, if positive portrayals on TV have helped embolden more LGBT people to open up to their friends and family, then we can at least give them props for an indirect impact. 

What would you like to tell me I take for granted?

Otherwise we have to posit that the most popular sitcom writers have the ability to change people’s opinion in an arbitrary manner, simply by writing it into a popular show, rather than conclude that shows that focus on stagnant themes will not be popular.