Comments on: Global Energy Use Predictions through 2035

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By: abitha

abitha — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 18:12:00 +0000

Perhaps it would be worth pointing out that OECD countries only make up about 18% of the world’s population (source: wikipedia article on OECD and wikipedia article on world population). Looking at the graphs without knowing that, it would be easy to assume that the OECD and non-OECD populations were approximately equal, and that the non-OECD countries were going to be using more than their share of power by 2035. (Incidentally, note that the second graph is ‘per capita’ rather than total CO2 emissions – which presumably takes account of predicted changes in global population, as well.)

Although Yrro does have a point about first-world CO2 regulations not being the complete answer (there is a graph in the full EIA report that illustrates the point about China’s coal use splendidly), I would argue that they do have some place. Look at the first graph – as of 2008, OECD countries (18% of global population) consume approximately 50% of global energy. Capping the emissions related to that 50% is surely better than nothing, isn’t it?

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 14:21:00 +0000

That’s why China’s making a huge push towards building more nuclear reactors. At least then, you’re generating a great deal of energy and not actively polluting the air.

By: Yrro Simyarin

Yrro Simyarin — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 13:01:00 +0000

I’ve said it a million times – until someone invents a way to make clean energy cheap enough that China will use it instead of coal, the first world CO2 regulations will barely matter.

Unfortunately, the research for that is unlikely to happen until coal gets a lot more expensive, which isn’t going to happen naturally any time soon. But it’s going to put a serious cramp in our entire economic system to make it expensive unnaturally, so no politician wants to touch that reality. Or, at least, not while admitting that that is the real goal, and the real side effects thereof. The first world is built on cheap energy. Making energy more expensive is not going to be good for its own poor.